You can gamble on horses or on the turn of a card – but Daniel Gould made a living betting on the outcome of the annual Eurovision Song Contest. Daniel made a profit because he studied the voting history of the competition, as well as the cultural and geo-political factors that predict which songs will triumph and which will score “nil point”.
In 2018, Daniel was so sure of his system of reducing the risk that he took out a loan on his home and bet it on Israel’s song to win… only to see the entry from Cyrus suddenly rocketing up the leader board. Was Daniel about to lose everything?
Philip Tetlock’s classic book on forecasting is Expert Political Judgment.