Tim Harford The Undercover Economist

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My recommendations for top podcasts, tweets, videos and anything else that makes economics fun.

Marginalia

Behavioural economics books to enjoy

Congratulations to Richard Thaler, who has been awarded the Nobel memorial prize in economics “for his contributions to behavioural economics”. Thaler is a worthy winner. In addition to his academic contributions, alongside the likes of Daniel Kahneman and Robert Shiller, he has been the leading evangelist in the profession for behavioural realism in economics.

Thaler’s influence on policymakers has been unparalleled, in part thanks to his book Nudge (UK) (US) with Cass Sunstein. I wrote a quick appreciation of Thaler for the FT (subscription req.) and this much longer piece a couple of years ago asking what lay in store for behavioural economics.

Here are a few of my favourite behavioural economics books:

Daniel Kahneman Thinking Fast and Slow (UK) (US) – now the bible of behavioural economics, full of fascinating experiments and examples.

Michael Lewis The Undoing Project (UK) (US) – a touching biography of Kahneman and Tversky. Skip the first chapter, but the rest is beautiful storytelling and insightful.

Cass Sunstein and Reid Hastie Wiser (UK) (US) – the best book I know about group decision-making and how to overcoming polarisation and groupthink.

For inside stories of behavioural economics try Thaler’s Misbehaving (UK) (US) and David Halpern’s Inside the Nudge Unit (UK) (US).

And for behavioural science to brighten your day, there’s Think Small (UK) (US) by Halpern’s colleagues Owain Service and Rory Gallagher, or How To Have A Good Day (UK) (US) by Caroline Webb.

Enjoy! And if you’d like a reminder that the old rational choice school of thought has some intriguing insights to contribute, may I (ahem) recommend my second book The Logic of Life (UK) (US).

 
My new book is “Fifty Inventions That Shaped The Modern Economy”. Grab yourself a copy in the US or in the UK (slightly different title) or through your local bookshop.

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9th of October, 2017MarginaliaResourcesComments off
Marginalia

Books about how to see into the future

(One prediction I’m willing to make is that the US paperback edition of Messy is out on Wednesday. Buy buy buy! More about the book here.)

 

Walter Friedman has a fascinating history of economic forecasting in the early 20th century: Fortune Tellers (UK) (US). Well researched, full of interesting detail, and some of these guys (Irving Fisher, Roger Babson) were remarkable characters. For an insight into Fisher’s rival as an economist and investor, John Wasik’s Keynes’s Way To Wealth (UK) (US) is a fun light read.

Paul Goodwin’s Forewarned (UK) (US) is a broad survey of different forecasting approaches. I learned a few interesting things – but also felt Goodwin never quite reached a conclusion.

Philip Tetlock, with Dan Gardner wrote Superforecasting (UK) (US). Tetlock is one of the most interesting social scientists alive, and this research project into who does and does not make good forecasts is fascinating. (You might also look up Tetlock’s brilliant earlier, nerdier Expert Political Judgement and Gardner’s earlier polemic Future Babble, books which led to this collaboration.)

People who are interested in an alternative approach, scenario planning, might check out this offering from two of my former colleagues in Shell’s scenario planning team, Rafael Ramirez and Angela Wilkinson: Strategic Reframing (UK) (US). I haven’t yet read the book but I have no doubt about the qualifications of its authors, and the scenario method is a clever approach to an almost impossible future-gazing task.

Finally, this BBC Radio program about economic forecasting is good fun.

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28th of September, 2017MarginaliaResourcesComments off
Marginalia

Remembering the holocaust

Over the past few weeks I’ve been reading some books about the holocaust. I never dreamed that all this would become so relevant.

Art Spiegelman’s graphic memoir Maus (UK) (US) is brilliant, devastating, and occasionally very funny. Spiegelman’s father and mother, Vladek and Anja, survived Auschwitz against dreadful odds. Anja later killed herself. The contrast between the elderly Vladek – weak, needy, apparently socially clueless – and the younger Vladek – strong, ingenious, and socially nimble – is striking. And the details come alive in Spiegelman’s brutally direct telling.

Elie Wiesel’s Night (UK) (US) seems to be required reading in the US but I’d not read it until recently. It’s simple, excellent, unremittingly bleak. I think the figure of Moishe the Beadle – who has witnessed an atrocity but cannot get any of his fellow Jews to believe him – is the most tragic I’ve ever encountered. Grim and brilliant.

Viktor Frankl’s Man’s Search For Meaning (UK) (US) has, I’m told, changed people’s lives. Like Wiesel, Frankl survived life the camps. Unlike Wiesel he has a message of inspiration and redemption. It’s an interesting contrast. (Both books are very short.)

Then there’s Anne Frank’s Diary of a Young Girl. (UK) (US) It’s heartbreaking.

I’m glad I read these books. I’ll be reading others – histories as well as memoirs.

17th of August, 2017MarginaliaResourcesComments off
Marginalia

Three great books about getting the important things done

I’ve been thinking a lot, recently, about getting things done, and at the top of my list is Cal Newport’s remarkable book Deep Work. (US) (UK) Newport makes a persuasive case that our success in the world of work is often dependent on the amount of time we can devote to serious, deep thinking. This isn’t true for every job, of course, but it’s true for many. (Management is an obvious exception, an example of a knowledge-economy job that requires decisiveness and judgement rather than depth.)

One thing I appreciated about Newport’s book is that while he’s uncompromising in his belief that deep work is essential both for productivity and for happiness, he’s quite flexible in his understanding of how it’s to be achieved, and gives a variety of examples from Walter Isaacson, who seemed to be able to snatch focused time in twenty-minute chunks, to coder-hermits who shun email and deal with most mail in quarterly.

Another powerful observation – one that hit home for me – is that for many of us, the productivity-sink isn’t watching YouTube videos or gossiping on Snapchat. It’s ostensibly-serious stuff like emails and meetings. Email, in particular, is a severe temptation for me – I find it easy and it feels and looks like work. Swift, decisive email etiquette feels very professional – but all too often it’s just an excuse for avoiding the real work.

Deep Work is a brilliant book and I unreservedly recommend it.

 

For a playful take on related themes, I turned to Robert Twigger’s wonderful little book Micromastery. (US) (UK) Twigger – among other things an explorer, prize-winning poet, and Aikido master – makes the case for mastering many deep-but-narrow skills. Learn how to do an Eskimo roll, or a racing turn, or how to draw a smooth circle by hand. Don’t aim to become a brilliant cook; start instead by mastering the omelette. Twigger offers a cornucopia of little tricks – the kind of thing that you might find in a “how to amaze your friends and win bar bets” book – but far more interesting and compelling is his idea of micromastery, which he sees as empowering (because you remember how to learn and discover), as a source of creativity (because you acquire an ever-larger range of insights) and as a step towards broader mastery (because learning one narrow skill well is a fun, motivating way to begin in a new field). A really fun book – and a wise idea explained well.

Micromastery also bridges an apparent conflict between Deep Work and my own book Messy, which sings the praises of switching from one project to another. Twigger argues that if you want to go deep you need variety: master something narrow, but when you feel yourself getting jaded, switch to something else. Day by day you are focused, but month by month or year by year, your experiences and skills are varied.

 

I could hardly finish this without a shout-out for David Allen’s Getting Things Done. (US) (UK) (Not to be confused with Ed Bliss’s classic of the same name (US) (UK) – a great book too, if somewhat dated.) Allen’s book is inelegantly-written and has always felt wordy – but it’s been a huge success because it works. The central ideas of GTD are: take vague incoming issues (a phone message, an email, a meeting, an idea that pops into your head) and turn then into some specific next action, then write the next action down somewhere where you’re confident you’ll see it when you need it. This stops your subconscious constantly churning over the issue.

That makes GTD sound simple and in many ways it is. But in the messy reality of modern work it’s often easier to appreciate the principle than to make it work in practice. I don’t follow every piece of David Allen’s advice but I follow a lot, because it’s smart, practical and useful stuff.

My new book is “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy” – out last week in the UK and coming soon in the US. Grab yourself a copy in the US (slightly different title) or in the UK or through your local bookshop.

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19th of July, 2017MarginaliaResourcesComments off
Other Writing

Books about calling statistical bullshit

A friend recently emailed to ask me for books that might help navigate a world full of statistical bullshit. Here are some recommendations.

I can’t think of a better science writer than Ben Goldacre, who burns with righteous mischief. His Bad Science (UK) (US) isn’t always about statistics, but it’s excellent throughout and an essential read for anyone who wants to understand some of the faults of modern health and nutrition journalism. Wonderful book.

Of course you should subscribe to the More or Less podcast, but you could also enjoy The Tiger That Isn’t (UK) (US). This is the unofficial book of the series, written by More or Less founders Andrew Dilnot and Michael Blastland. A highly readable guide to making sense of numbers in the wild.

Also very good – with more US examples – is Stat-Spotting (UK) (US) by Joel Best. Best’s book has given me some of my favourite examples of bad stats, but it currently seems a bit overpriced on Amazon, alas.

The classic of the field is, of course, Darrell Huff’s How To Lie With Statistics (UK) (US). There’s a sad coda that will tarnish your view of Huff; but this is still a terrific book.

Brand new book by the very splendid Evan Davis is called Post Truth (UK) (US) – haven’t yet read much but looks good.

And finally try Naked Statistics (UK) (US) by Charles Wheelan, who with wit and clarity wrote the similarly excellent Naked Economics (UK) (US).

Best, Dilnot, Huff and Wheelan all cover quite similar ground. If I was picking just one of them I’d go for Dilnot for a UK audience and Wheelan in the US.

My new book is “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy” – coming very, very soon and available for pre-order. Grab yourself a copy in the US (slightly different title) or in the UK or through your local bookshop.

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26th of June, 2017Other WritingResourcesComments off
Marginalia

What are the best books about the history of technology?

I’ve had such fun working on the book and radio series, Fifty Things That Made the Modern Economy – and along the way I’ve had the opportunity to read some great books about the history of economics, finance, innovation and technology. Here are some of my favourites.

Alison Wolf The XX Factor (UK) (US) – Fun yet rigorous exploration of women’s participation in the workforce, and how and why it’s been changing over the years.

David Edgerton The Shock of the Old (UK) (US) – An appreciation of the humbler innovations in life, and a reminder that old technologies often stay with us a long time.

Felix Martin Money: An Unauthorised Biography (UK) (US) – Well-argued alternative history of money, packed with great stories.

Frank Trentmann Empire of Things (UK) (US) – An epic history of retail and consumerism.

Marc Levinson The Box (UK) (US) – The nerd-history to end all nerd-history. Levinson loves shipping containers and after reading this book, you will too.

Mark Kurlansky Paper (UK) (US) – I loved this book. Paper is even more underrated than shipping containers.

Mark Miodownik Stuff Matters (UK) (US) – Also good on paper – and concrete, and all sorts of miraculous materials we take for granted.

Robert Gordon The Rise and Fall of American Growth (UK) (US) – Magisterial history of technology and productivity. Closely-argued with lots of data but still feels rich and alive.

Steven Johnson How We Got To Now (UK) (US) – Stylishly-told history of six key innovations. You can’t fail to enjoy technological history the way Johnson tells it.

Steven Levy Hackers (UK) (US) – A modern classic, essential reading on the origins of modern computing.

William Goetzmann Money Changes Everything (UK) (US) – Like Gordon’s book, this is another academic read whose rich storytelling transcend the rigorous foundation. Great book.

Not the only sources for Fifty Things That Made the Modern Economy – but important ones. Enjoy!

 

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19th of June, 2017MarginaliaResourcesComments off
Marginalia

Books that will help you give a superb talk

Nobody ever mastered a skill by reading books – with the possible exception of reading itself. But books can help. Below are a few that I’ve found helpful over the years. But first, a few observations.

First, a good speech needs to have a purpose. All too often people view speeches the way my daughter sometimes views her school homework: “I’ve got to write an essay about the Henry VIII and the dissolution of the monasteries, and it’s got to be at least two pages long.” “I’ve got to give a talk about information security and it’s got to fill 25 minutes.”

If that’s how you look at things, you’re well on your way to a tedious speech. The starting point will be to sit down with a piece of paper (or worse, to fire up PowerPoint) and start listing all the things you can think of that might fill the void.

Instead, start with the question, “what’s the one thing I want people to learn, or feel, or do, as a result of hearing this?”. Everything else – jokes, stories, visual aids, supporting arguments – flows from that.

Second, deliberate practice helps. Each good speech you give tends to improve every future speech: set yourself the task of giving a truly sensational talk just once in your life. You’ll learn a lot. And when you’re preparing for a speech, practice in front of the mirror, or record yourself on your phone, or recruit a friend to listen. Yes, it’s painful, but even one run-through will make an enormous difference.

Third, distinguish between your speaking notes, your handouts, and your visual aids, and decide whether you need any of them. Your speaking notes are a series of bullet-point prompts; PowerPoint is a perfectly decent tool to generate these but they should be on 3×5 inch cards in your hand, not projected on the screen behind you. Your handouts provide a reminder of what you’ve said, or references, further reading, extra detail. You may not need them at all, but if you do, this is the place for the small print and the footnotes – not on the screen. The only thing that should go on the projector screen is the bona fide visual aid – a graph, image, movie or diagram that makes a genuine contribution to the purpose of your speech (remember that?). If no visual aid is appropriate, insert a blank slide or press “B” or “W” to turn the screen blank black or white.

Okay – lesson over. Here are my recommendations.

The single best book on public speaking I’ve ever read is Chris Anderson’s TED Talks (UK) (US). I reviewed it here; my only caution about the book is that it’s focused on giving the talk of your life. Anyone looking for quick tips to perk up the monthly sales meeting won’t find them here.

A great companion to Anderson’s book is Jonathan Swabisch’s Better Presentations (UK) (US). This is a workmanlike book aimed at academics, and covers all the basics – structure, visual aids, delivery. It’s smart and comprehensive and even an experienced presenter will learn a thing or too.

A more touchy-feely effort is Garr Reynolds’s Presentation Zen (UK) (US). Contains lots of good advice, wrapped up in all kinds of talk about “mind of a swordsman” and “being present”. It would annoy some people but it’s actually full of good advice.

If you want to do the McKinsey slide-deck thing with 50 data-packed slides, but do it well, I would suggest Gene Zelazny’s Say it With Charts (UK) (US). This is not the way I present, but it is appropriate for some contexts.

Finally, good advice on design in general, which will perk up any slide, comes from The Non-Designer’s Design Book by Robin Williams (UK) (US).

 
My new book is “Fifty Things That Made The Modern Economy” – coming soon! If you want to get ahead of the curve you can pre-order in the US (slightly different title) or in the UK or through your local bookshop.

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22nd of May, 2017MarginaliaOther WritingResourcesComments off
Marginalia

A Messy Reader

While I was writing Messy I started to find inspiration in the strangest places, many of which have been rather wonderfully explored by others. For your interest – or perhaps because you’ve read “Messy” and want to go deeper – here are a few suggestions for further reading and listening.

 

On Music

Kind of Blue by Ashley Kahn (US) (UK) – and of course you should listen to the album. (US) (UK).

Starman by Paul Trynka (US) (UK) – ideally accompanied by a dose of “Heroes” (US) (UK) and Music for Airports (US) (UK).

Listen to this documentary about Keith Jarrett’s concert in Cologne, and then listen to The Koln Concert (US) (UK) and marvel.

 

On Creative Prodigies

The Man Who Loved Only Numbers (US) (UK) is a fascinating book about Paul Erdos, while Ed Yong wrote a great feature about Erez Lieberman Aiden.

 

On Architecture

Warren Berger’s Lost in Space is the perfect source on Chiat Day’s open plan experiment, but since Messy went to press Planet Money did a great episode on the subject too.

On Building 20, watch Stewart Brand’s remarkable series How Buildings Learn, read the book (US) (UK) and also check out Jonah Lehrer’s New Yorker article.

 

On Martin Luther King

Taylor Branch’s Parting the Waters (US) (UK) was the biography that stuck with me, and I found out about the Rev Dr King’s improvisations from James C Scott’s Two Cheers for Anarchism (US) (UK).

 

On battlefield improvisers

Brad Stone’s The Everything Store (US) (UK) is now definitive on Amazon’s early years; David Fraser’s Knight’s Cross (US) (UK) was a key source on Erwin Rommel, and I fell in love with Virginia Cowles’s The Phantom Major (US) (UK).

 

On the paradox of automation

William Langewiesche and Jeff Wise both wrote compelling accounts of the tragedy of Flight 447 – perhaps even more striking in radio form courtesy of 99% Invisible.

 

On dating, parenting and the art of conversation

Start with Kevin Poulsen’s account of how a maths genius hacked OK Cupid, move on to Hanna Rosin’s Overprotected Kid, but most of all read Brian Christian’s masterful book The Most Human Human (US) (UK).

 

On the microbiome

Emily Eakin has written two terrific pieces for the New Yorker.

 

On mess in general 

A Perfect Mess (UK) by Eric Abrahamson and David Freedman is a lovely, playful book – particularly on the subject of decluttering and messy desks. For a bigger picture on the upside of mess, read two of the greatest works of the twentieth century, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (US) (UK) by Jane Jacobs and Seeing Like A State (US) (UK) by James C Scott.

 

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8th of October, 2016MarginaliaResourcesComments off
Resources

The Asch Conformity Experiment

This is a classic and well worth your time.

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Economics in the office jungle

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Books

  • Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy
  • Messy
  • The Undercover Economist Strikes Back
  • Adapt
  • Dear Undercover Economist
  • The Logic of Life
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