A ‘simple rule’ about migrants and benefits
Clues to the UK’s woes lurk in its own backyard, writes Tim Harford
‘Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary . . . said the number of EU migrants claiming benefits in Britain had reached a “crisis” and confirmed the government was “looking at what we can do” to limit new arrivals’ access to welfare’
FT.com, March 6
Never a man to waste a good crisis, that IDS fellow.
Or manufacture one. Mr Duncan Smith’s declaration hits all the right notes for a Conservative politician: the welfare scroungers are picking our pockets; there are too many foreigners around; and it’s all the fault of the EU. But behind the mood music there isn’t a lot of substance. We don’t know for sure how many EU migrants claim benefits but Mr Duncan Smith’s Department for Work and Pensions did publish a fascinating estimate in January 2012.
Which found?
The DWP looked at people who were of working age, and who were not UK citizens at the time they applied for a national insurance number. They found that in February 2011, 6.6 per cent of such people were claiming a working age benefit such as jobseeker’s allowance.
That must be hundreds of thousands of people, though.
Over a third of a million people, yes. But 93.4 per cent of the working-age immigrant population are not claiming working-age benefits. This ratio compares very favourably indeed with the homegrown working-age population: 16.6 per cent of us were claiming working-age benefits. Is this really what an immigrant benefit crisis looks like?
But Mr Duncan Smith particularly drew attention to immigrants from the EU.
I don’t know why. The DWP’s own figures show that EU accession countries hardly figure in the list of benefit claimants, who are much more likely to come from India, Pakistan, Somalia or Bangladesh. There are a lot of Poles in the country but they only come seventh on the list of benefit-claiming immigrants.
But immigrants also use public resources such as care in the National Health Service or school places.
And they pay for them too. An analysis by University of College London’s Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, published in July 2009, found that immigrants from the EU8 accession countries had been net contributors to the public purse in every year since May 2004, when these central and eastern European states joined the EU. Given that the UK population as a whole had been draining the public purse by running a deficit, this is an impressive achievement.
But the situation might change when Romanians and Bulgarians are allowed to work here next year.
Lots of things might happen. Forecasts on this question have been very poor in the past. Official forecasts of how many immigrants might show up when the borders were opened to eastern Europe in 2004 were dramatic underestimates. But despite this unexpected immigration bulge, things have been fine. I mean, the country has gone to the dogs since 2004, but it’s hard to make a case that the Poles themselves caused any trouble.
Unless Gordon Brown has a Polish grandmother?
Or George Osborne. Or Fred Goodwin. Or Sir Mervyn King. Whoever you want to blame for the state we’re in, it needs a peculiarly xenophobic mindset to point the finger at immigration, even if it did happen on a far greater scale than anyone expected.
Social cohesion has to be an issue. I see Ed Miliband wants to ensure that people speak English. No wonder: the 2011 census found a million households in England and Wales that speak no English.
So a number of commentators claimed – for instance Jackie Ashley in the Guardian. The census actually found something different: 1m households where English or Welsh was not the first language. But that doesn’t tell us anything about whether English was spoken well, poorly or not at all.
The Labour leader wants a ‘simple rule’: to make sure people who work in the public sector, face to face with the public, can speak English.
Does this country really hire lots of public sector workers who are unable to function because they can’t speak English? If we do, that’s a sign of a serious problem and one that will not be fixed by the sticking plaster of Mr Miliband’s “simple rule”. The British economy and public finances are in a bad state. If our borders had been closed to eastern Europe in 2004 they would be worse.
Also published at ft.com.
16 Comments
Andrew Harrison says:
Fine riposte to the hysterical xenophobic nonsense that’s all too prevalent.
9th of March, 2013Keith Emerson says:
If 93.4 per cent of the working-age immigrant population are not claiming working-age benefits it would suggest that they are working, in other words “they have a job”. Surely for every 1 migrant that has a job in the UK there is 1 “UK citizen” without a job. What impact does this have on the welfare system? Obviously there are going to be exceptions for very specialised jobs.
9th of March, 2013Mark says:
It works both ways, I’m been living in Germany for 15 years, always working, never taken a penny in unemployment benefits. My colleagues were whining about “immigrants”, when I suggested they should be careful as I was listening they said “but you’re not an immigrant, you’re English”!
As to the statement about 1 million households not having English as a first language, of course, many of these will contain bi- or even tri- lingual people, just that English isn’t the first choice (in my case in Germany, we don’t speak German as a first language, but I’m bilingual now, my wife and kids trilingual, which has to be even better that the monolingual locals!)
10th of March, 2013Chris says:
Keith, that can only be true if those immigrants don’t use any food, drink, shelter or other resources in this country. Otherwise they’ll be spending money on things, helping to employ others.
11th of March, 2013Jan says:
Keith, sadly the uk population is unable fill most of the specialised roles that immigrants work in. For example, very few UK citizens seem to apply for roles in toilet hygiene, clearly this is an area where we need to rely on the talents of foreigners, I am sure roughly the skills gap accounts for the other end of the spectrum in financial analysts, computer programmers, accountants, and doctors. Of course I exclude the really talented individuals as they tend to opt out of contributing to UK society as Non-Doms.
11th of March, 2013Ian says:
Keith, furthermore, if employers chose someone who is best for the job, whether from another country or not, the whole economy operates more efficiently. Restricting employers choice of staff, be definition, reduces the potential for economic growth.
So immigrant employeees may aid efficiency AND generate other employment in services etc..
11th of March, 2013Simon Tanner says:
Census data does show the self-assessed English (Welsh in Wales)Language proficiency of those aged three years or over whose main language is not English. You can download stats at a local authority level here:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/key-statistics-and-quick-statistics-for-wards-and-output-areas-in-england-and-wales/rft-qs205ew.xls
This shows the following:
Of 53,961,451 residents aged over 3 years in England and Wales 4,153,266 (7.7%) do not have English as their main language. Of these 137,511 do not speak English at all, that’s 1.6% of the total resident population aged 3 or over in England and Wales or 3.3% of all residents in England and Wales aged three or over who do not have English as their main language.
Indeed 41% (1,689,406) of all those who do not have English as their main language say they can speak English well or very well.
11th of March, 2013Simon Rake says:
I have often wondered if the comparative lack of unemployment in the current recession is partly due to the fact that many migrants from EU accession countries have returned there as prospects in the UK have worsened. Is there data on this?
11th of March, 2013If this is the case, then migration would have the added bonus of providing an “offshore pool” of skilled workers that can be drawn on to avoid skills shortages when times are good and which automatically re-adjusts when things go to rats.
bruce lawson says:
Good article, thanks Tim. Could I make one nit-pick? When writing something like ” An analysis by University of College London’s Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, published in July 2009″, as it’s the Web, could you add a link to the paper so I can read it?
Good for when loony rightwingers shout “citation needed!”.
13th of March, 2013Chayalim Bodedim says:
Asian Immigrants in the 70s were a good send. English shop use to close at 5pm. If you were single working parent then picking any shopping after work was a no. The Asian immigrants opened shop with little in them, but You could get basics. They stayed opened till 9pm. They stocked up by setting up cash and carry. Also 2010, Afgan immigrant opens….wait for it…a green grocers. Remember them? Now I get my five a day. This country is all immigrants with the first lot wanting it all. Except the fact that we have had it too good compared to a lot of countrys. We should be less selfish and be grateful we are not really as bad off as some in this world. Shalom.
13th of March, 2013John says:
In prosperous, reasonably peaceful, reasonably tolerant** Australia 18 per cent of people (24 per cent in the big cities) speak a language other than English at home. Some things are only a problem if you believe they’re a problem.
** not saying it’s all sweetness and light , every immigrant nation has its Duncan Smiths.
13th of March, 2013Marcos Perez says:
This ratio compares very favourably indeed with the homegrown working-age population: 16.6 per cent of us were claiming working-age benefits.
Hello, could you expand upon this figure a little. I’ve read that there are 32.7m UK-born people of working age and 5.13m of them (according to the same analysis as you used, I believe) were claiming out-of-work benefits. This comes to 6.4pc, which is similar to the migrant figure of 6.6pc.
14th of March, 2013Marcos Perez says:
Please excuse my appalling arithmetic! My previous figure should have been 15.7pc for UK-born citizens!
The migrant figure is around 7pc.
14th of March, 2013Keith says:
Chris, don’t the unemployed need food, drink, shelter or other resources? Unless the immigrant with a job is paying enough in tax to cover the UK citizen without a job there must be some effect upon the welfare system etc.
Ian, if everything you say is true, why is our economy in recession? Using the word “may” suggests you have no evidence to prove this.
14th of March, 2013KDGLONDON says:
Keith: Let me give you an example. I’m an immigrant and I have a job in the UK. Most of my services-actually all– are sold to clients outside the EU. If I left the UK, that job wouldn’t exist. I’m self-employed. Even if I was employed by the companies I consult through, however, the likely effect of my leaving the UK would be that the practice we have right now would disappear too. Further, because we’re busy, we’re able to create work for more people in the UK, which results in more spending and more employment in the economy. So the idea that there’s a fixed number of jobs, that somehow the skills exist to have 1-to-1 replacement of foreigners by UK-born folks and vice versa, is all pretty dubious. There are lots of foreign investors and entrepreneurs who create jobs in this country.
25th of March, 2013Peter says:
Hi, please define “working age benefits”.
This sounds like a highly selective set. How about “all benefits”. Thing is most people have come to the UK to do low-waged work. Low waged work entitles you as an EU citizen to housing benefit, tax credits and relief on council tax. None of these are free simply because you chose not to count them.
That’s before you consider universal benefits like healthcare. In many countries for a family this would cost nearly half a minimum wage for insurance-based cover. Then child benefit. Again taking someone into the UK adds this to the expenses, it isn’t free either.
26th of March, 2013