How long to wait for the perfect espresso?

Dear Economist,

I just popped out of my office to grab a coffee from the best local place, a minute’s walk away. When I got there I found a sign saying “Back in ten mins”. It’s quite cold, and since I hadn’t expected to be out for more than a few minutes, I’m not wearing a coat. There are several alternative coffee vendors close by, some of which experience shows produce bad coffee, and some of which are untried, but don’t normally have a queue that suggests greatness. There’s nothing useful to do while I wait.

How long should I have waited before defecting to an alternative vendor?

Yours Sincerely,

-Tom

Dear Tom,

Let’s get the maths out of the way first. If the barista really knew he would be absent for 10 minutes when putting up the sign, you’re equally likely to have arrived just after he leaves, or just before he returns. You’d expect to wait five minutes on average.

The barista may have been cleverer than that, however: knowing that most customers would not arrive immediately after he skived off, he might have given himself extra slack. Perhaps he plans to be absent for twenty minutes, leaving your expected wait at an unacceptable ten.

These seem to be your regular haunts, so in future I advise that you immediately try somewhere else. If the coffee is better – even if that is unlikely – that knowledge will be something you can use every day. If not, at least you will have kept warm.

And if you do decide to stand and wait, make sure you try for a free coffee when the absent proprietor returns.

First published in “Mens Health”

5^th of May, 2011 • Dear Economist • Comments off

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7 Comments

Pete says:

Since you are covering caffeine and wait time I am wondering if you can address my issue. I often find myself waiting in line for a simple cup of coffee but ahead of me the barista is busy making fancy drinks that take a lot of time.Why don’t they create fast-tracks for folks like me? My only theory is that the owners assume a longer wait will mean I will be more tempted by the cookies, scones, etc. and that since I am addicted to caffeine I will tolerate the wait. Is there economic validity to this?
5^th of May, 2011
Mike H says:

Having read the chapter “What Supermarkets Don’t Want You To Know” of “The Undercover Economist”, it strikes me that it might make more sense to create a fast-track lane for the expensive fancy drinks.

If people are on the margin between an expensive fancy drink and a cheap simple one, why tip them towards spending less money?
6^th of May, 2011
Ivan says:

Dear Reader, alternatively assuming you own a smartphone, you could type in google maps for the keyword “cofee”. It will give you the name of the shops nearby, how to get to them and a time estimate from where you are, plus customer satisfaction and ratings so you can make a better decision.

If you don’t yet own a smartphone, consider all the times a week that someone make you loose 5 minutes, instead you could be typing on a bloggers page, like I am.
6^th of May, 2011
Pedant says:

It’s Men’s Health, not Mens Health.
6^th of May, 2011
Sagi says:

… and if the alternative coffee you try is bad, there is the benefit of you knowing that all that time you were right to stick to your regular place. This is an important ego benefit as well.
6^th of May, 2011
The Pedant's Pedant says:

I think it should be Mens’ Health actually as it it the possessive case of a plural but I may be wrong since I don’t drink coffee.
7^th of May, 2011
Pedant's Pedant's Pedant says:

It’s Men’s Health, because Men is already the plural of man.
8^th of May, 2011